Energy Transition Plans Keep Freezing Today’s Demand Into Tomorrow
cleantechnica.com Oct 25, 2026

Energy Transition Plans Keep Freezing Today’s Demand Into Tomorrow

AI-summarised brief · reviewed before publication

At an Earth Set event hosted by Octopus Energy in London, analysts Amy Rennison and Michael Barnard warned that many energy‑transition forecasts mistakenly project today’s demand patterns into the future, inflating the scale of low‑carbon replacements needed. They illustrated the flaw with shipping, noting that while current estimates of 2100 liquid‑fuel demand range from 70 million to several hundred million tonnes, the true figure depends on how quickly electrification, steel‑making reforms and short‑sea routes reduce fossil use. Similar assumption gaps appear in hydrogen, where high production costs shrink the viable market, and in aviation, where discretionary travel drives fuel needs. The discussion highlighted that entrenched policies, subsidies and institutional commitments often outlast the assumptions that created them, making course corrections as much an organizational challenge as a technical one.

💡 Why It Matters

  • · Overstated demand forecasts can misdirect billions of dollars into infrastructure that may never be needed, locking in costly assets and delaying more realistic, cost‑effective decarbonisation pathways.