Morgan Stanley Analyst Estimates Tesla Could Save $2.5 Billion by Replacing 10% of Workforce with Optimus Robots
Jul 9, 2025

Morgan Stanley Analyst Estimates Tesla Could Save $2.5 Billion by Replacing 10% of Workforce with Optimus Robots

AI-summarised brief · reviewed before publication

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas has estimated that Tesla could save $2.5 billion by replacing just 10% of its workforce with its Optimus robots. In a recent note, Jonas assigned each robot a net present value (NPV) of $200,000. Tesla's workforce currently stands at 125,665 employees worldwide, and according to Jonas' calculations, a 10% substitution with humanoid robots could be worth approximately $2.5 billion. This potential cost savings could significantly reduce labor costs for the electric vehicle maker. The analyst's note follows Tesla's Q2 2025 delivery report, which saw the company deliver 384,122 vehicles, coming close to Morgan Stanley's estimate and slightly under the consensus of 385,086. In addition to the potential savings from the Optimus robots, Jonas also expressed caution regarding Tesla Energy, whose battery storage deployments were flat year over year at 9.6 GWh. Morgan Stanley had expected Tesla Energy to post battery storage deployments of 14 GWh in the second quarter. Furthermore, Jonas noted that Tesla CEO Elon Musk's political ambitions could divert attention and resources from the company's core operations, adding near-term pressure on TSLA stock. Musk has recently floated the idea of launching a new political party, following a poll on X that showed support for the idea. Although a widely circulated FEC filing was labeled false by Musk, the CEO does seem intent on establishing a third political party in the United States. Jonas cautioned that Musk's political efforts could divert attention and resources from Tesla's core operations, adding near-term pressure on TSLA stock. "We believe investors should be prepared for further devotion of resources (financial, time/attention) in the direction of Mr. Musk's political priorities which may add further near-term pressure to TSLA shares," Jonas stated.