Dell’Oro lifts data centre capex forecast on AI demand
AI-summarised brief · reviewed before publication
Dell'Oro Group has revised its worldwide data centre capital expenditure forecast, projecting spending will exceed $3 trillion by 2030. This estimate nearly doubles the firm’s January 2026 outlook, driven by sustained investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure. High-end accelerators for AI-optimised servers are expected to capture the largest share of this investment through the decade end. The upward revision reflects increased guidance from major cloud operators, higher global power capacity projections, and rising commodity costs. Baron Fung, Vice President of Research at Dell'Oro, attributed the change to these factors. The top four US hyperscalers are projected to account for approximately half of global capital expenditure. Additionally, AI-specialised cloud providers, including neocloud service providers, are expected to grow at a compound annual rate of nearly 60% through 2030. This segment outpaces other customer groups, highlighting a distinct market evolution as specialist providers rent GPU access to developers.
💡 Why It Matters
- · The concentration of half the global spend among just four US hyperscalers exposes the entire infrastructure supply chain to the strategic whims of a tiny oligopoly.
- · This extreme dependency means that any shift in their AI adoption pace will cause immediate, disproportionate volatility for chipmakers and energy providers worldwide.