TechCapsules

AI-summarised brief · reviewed before publication

JPMorgan has lowered its 12-month price target for Apple's stock from $240 to $230, citing weaker iPhone 17 expectations, ongoing macroeconomic headwinds, and a slower-than-expected path for Apple's AI strategy to deliver meaningful returns. Despite this adjustment, the firm has maintained its overall "Overweight" rating, suggesting optimism about Apple's longer-term roadmap. The reduced price target is attributed to JPMorgan's more bearish view on the volume outlook for the iPhone 17 series. According to analyst Samik Chatterjee, this is in conjunction with unchanged expectations for a stronger cycle in the iPhone 18 series, which is set to launch with a foldable smartphone and further progress in AI features that have been long awaited and delayed. Chatterjee stated, "We forecast iPhone 18 series to see a stronger volume cycle, led by more material changes in the products including the launch of a foldable phone as well as broader AI-related features." The note also pointed to a modest pullback in consumer appetite for upgrades this fall, as purchases earlier this year (spurred by anticipated tariff hikes) likely pulled demand forward. This dynamic tracks with other recent forecasts, including a recent Counterpoint report pointing to early upgrade behavior linked to the pricing uncertainty in the height of the US-China trade tensions. Despite the revised outlook, JPMorgan still expects near-term results to hold up, thanks in part to subsidies in China. However, the firm now sees slower growth in fiscal 2026, with stronger upside only kicking in by 2027, when Apple's AI investments are expected to start contributing meaningfully to its bottom line.